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住院招生趋势
作者:USMedEdu
发表时间:2010-10-25
更新时间:2010-10-25
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发信人: ericusa (eric), 信区: MedicalCareer
标 题: Re: 关于kingsbrook jewish medical center
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Oct 25 09:36:19 2010, 美东)

There was a “physician surplus” projection in the past and now AAMC thinks
that was a mistake. Some of the AAMC’s recent key findings are:

“Aging of the population may drive demand sharply upward for specialties
that predominantly serve the elderly (e.g., oncologists).

The US Census Bureau projects that the US population will grow by more than
50 million (to 350 million) between 2006 and 2025. This alone will likely
lead to a considerable increase in the demand for physician services.

Universal health care coverage could add 4 percent to overall demand for
physicians; this would increase the projected physician shortfall by 31,000
physicians (25 percent).

Any future shortages are likely to have an uneven effect, with some
geographic areas, specialties and subpopulations hit harder than others,
resulting in hardships for both poor urban and rural communities, where
access to care continues to be problematic.

If US MDs continue to select other specialties, the future of primary care
practice is likely to rely increasingly on foreign medical school graduates,
osteopaths and non-physician clinicians.

Future demand for physicians would be significantly reduced if physician
assistants and nurse practitioners play a larger role in patient care.”

If this is true, it could continuously offer some opportunities for FMGs. In
the mean time, more and more Dr. NPs (nurse) and PAs will provide services
for primary care and other specialties (anesthesiology, dermatology, for
example). At this moment, our hospital has a shortage of dermatologists, but
not primary care doctors. Hospitals in this area see patient decrease due to
the
poor economy.


According to this figure, the number of PGY-1 positions has been increased
by a moderate 33% from 18,000 to 24,000 in the past 30 years (from 1980 to
2010). So far AAMC's "shortage" claim only caused the medical school
enrollment increase. We will wait and see what will happen to the number of
residency positions. At this moment, some hospitals in our state have
trouble to attract enough patients.

If there will be no big increase in PGY-1 positions in the next few years,
the competition for match will be intensified. If residency programs can
find a way for more funding (through local support as well federal level),
FMGs will have opportunities for the U.S. medical services.

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