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美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
[版面:股海弄潮][首篇作者:awaydream] , 2021年07月26日13:53:46 ,3034次阅读,34次回复
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awaydream
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发信人: awaydream (昆仑天下), 信区: Stock
标  题: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 13:53:46 2021, 美东)


前一阵动不动就现金全款买房,非常妖孽!

美国人吃喝惯了,能有几个能现金买房?都他妈的华尔街炒房团
在兴风作浪。

Black Rock炒房团, Zillow炒房团, Redfin炒房团,还有一堆
炒房团。都是在Fed鸡血政策加持下,疯狂炒房而已。

这帮子人,用2%的利率卖债券筹钱(Fed可能直接买他们的债券给他们输血),
拿到钱就到市场上去全款买房,爆炒房价,拉高了之后,赚得盆满钵满。
等着买房结婚生子的新一代美国人,就被搞成国内的房奴一样了,其实美国人的
生育率也已经跌得稀里哗啦了。再这么炒下去,美国人的人口完蛋起来也是很快的。

现在已经炒得很高了,炒房团估计准备要退场了,不要轻易接他们的盘啊。
让他们当房东,等着通胀起来,利息不得不升,就变成他们前面两面抽别人,
后面别人要前后夹击操炒房团了。

等着看好戏吧,快了。

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smallburrito
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发信人: smallburrito (smallburrito), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 13:54:13 2021, 美东)

Black Rock只是买了几个APT而已
涨得都是SFH
--
※ 修改:·smallburrito 於 Jul 26 13:54:34 2021 修改本文·[FROM: 38.]
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awaydream
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发信人: awaydream (昆仑天下), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 13:54:53 2021, 美东)

zillow 现金买single family house, 不是新鲜事。
他们一边炒房子,一边发布房市暴涨的分析数据,一边喊多,
普通人很容易被他们操纵的。


当然,最核心的是Fed常年压低利息,操纵CPI数据,
大量印钱,给他们降低融资成本打鸡血。

房地产要是崩盘,zillow, redfin这些公司搞不好要破产。




【 在 smallburrito (smallburrito) 的大作中提到: 】
: Black Rock只是买了几个APT而已




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※ 修改:·awaydream 於 Jul 26 13:57:08 2021 修改本文·[FROM: 152.]
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smallburrito
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发信人: smallburrito (smallburrito), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 13:56:11 2021, 美东)

他们只是买些老破房,南加不会有人把房子卖给ZILLOW
一百万的房子,他们出价50万,ZILLOW现在还是赔钱做的

【 在 awaydream (昆仑天下) 的大作中提到: 】
: zillow 现金买single family house, 不是新鲜事。



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awaydream
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发信人: awaydream (昆仑天下), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 13:58:51 2021, 美东)

不光zillow一家,很多人都在炒。
普通美国人有几个能现金全款买房? 看看那现金买房的比例,
没有妖孽才奇了怪了。





【 在 smallburrito (smallburrito) 的大作中提到: 】
: 他们只是买些老破房,南加不会有人把房子卖给ZILLOW
: 一百万的房子,他们出价50万,ZILLOW现在还是赔钱做的



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awaydream
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发信人: awaydream (昆仑天下), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 14:11:34 2021, 美东)

youtube上有人分析这个华尔街炒房团的故事,大体是正确的,
但是他显然对人口形势不熟悉。

美帝的人口形势在2007年之后,连年恶化,出生率连年暴跌,
贫富差距连年扩大都不是偶然的,Fed是难以推脱责任的。
再这么印下去,底层人很快就要造反了。


今天的美国,top 1%的人口的财富是, 后50%财富综合的 18倍。
看看美国怎么继续玩吧



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※ 修改:·awaydream 於 Jul 26 14:12:45 2021 修改本文·[FROM: 152.]
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Ktar
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发信人: Ktar (Kta), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 14:21:11 2021, 美东)

人口下降是趋势
只有非洲这种希特后地区 人口才会增长
因为人均寿命的起点非常低。
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smallburrito
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发信人: smallburrito (smallburrito), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 14:27:54 2021, 美东)

INVESTMENT的利率不低的,我想REFI都很难,没有那么疯狂
我这买房的全都是自住的。

【 在 yonghehong (yonghehong) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我这是华人双职工疯狂买投资方,一年一口气买2-3个那种。据说是用现金买的,把自
: 住房refinance,借几十万出来,据说便宜的投资房是需要用现金才能抢到。




--
※ 修改:·smallburrito 於 Jul 26 14:28:20 2021 修改本文·[FROM: 38.]
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awaydream
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发信人: awaydream (昆仑天下), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 14:30:12 2021, 美东)

Invitation Homes一家就买了亚特兰大年交易量的22%,
他的资金成本只有1.4%。 不是炒房团做妖,才奇怪了。

还有其他的炒房团,牛逼, 美国政府发给普通人的救济款,
全被炒房团撸走了,够狠。




Investment Firms Aren’t Buying All the Houses. But They Are Buying the Most
Important Ones.
BY ELENA BOTELLA
JUNE 19, 20215:45 AM

https://slate.com/business/2021/06/blackrock-invitation-houses-investment-
firms-real-estate.html


Investment Firms Aren’t Buying All the Houses. But They Are Buying the Most
Important Ones.
BY ELENA BOTELLA
JUNE 19, 20215:45 AM
Five small red toy houses lined up on a wooden counter.
Site of the next bidding war Tierra Mallorca/Unsplash
TWEET
SHARE
COMMENT
The median price of an American house has increased by 28 percent over the
last two years, as pandemic-driven demand and long-term demographic changes
send buyers into crazed bidding wars.

Might the fact that corporate investors snapped up 15 percent of U.S. homes
for sale in the first quarter of this year have something to do with it? The
Wall Street Journal reported in April that an investment firm won a bidding
war to purchase an entire neighborhood worth of single-family homes in
Conroe, Texas—part of a cycle of stories drumming up panic over Wall Street
’s increasing stake in residential real estate. Then came the backlash, as
cool-headed analysts reassured us that big investors like BlackRock remain
insignificant players in the housing market compared with regular old
American families.

ADVERTISEMENT

The truth is between the two: We can panic and acknowledge Wall Street’s
small role at the same time. Although the number of houses being purchased
by mega-investors is currently not enough to move the market in most parts
of the country, these firms’ underlying structural advantage is profound
and growing.

Let’s focus on Invitation Homes, a $21 billion publicly traded company that
was spun off from Blackstone, the world’s largest private equity company,
in 2017. Invitation Homes operates in 16 cities, with the biggest
concentration in Atlanta, where it owns 12,556 houses. (Though that’s not
much compared with the 80,000 homes sold in Atlanta each year, Invitation
Homes bought 90 percent of the homes for sale in some ZIP codes in Atlanta
in the early 2010s.) While normal people typically pay a mortgage interest
rate between 2 percent and 4 percent these days, Invitation Homes can borrow
money for far less: It’s getting billion-dollar loans at interest rates
around 1.4 percent. In practice, this means that Invitation Homes can afford
to tack on an extra $5,000 to $20,000 to the purchase price of every home,
while getting the house at the same actual cost as a typical homeowner.
While Invitation Homes uses a mixture of debt and cash from renters to buy
houses, its offers are almost always all cash, which is a big leg up in a
competitive market.

One way to think about Invitation Homes’ business strategy is to consider
the value of the properties the firm is buying, relative to the rents they
charge. According to a recent SEC disclosure, Invitation Homes’ portfolio
of homes is worth of total of $16 billion (after renovations), and the
company collects about $1.9 billion in rent per year. That means it takes
only about eight years of rental payments to pay back a typical house that
Invitation Homes has bought. The usual rule of thumb for evaluating a fair
sale price, says Kundan Kishor, professor of economics at University of
Wisconsin-Milwaukee, “is that price to rent ratios are around 20 to 1.”
When price-to-rent ratios are very high, it makes more sense for consumers
to rent than to buy, and when they are low, it makes more sense to buy than
to rent. That Invitation Homes is getting deals twice as good as a typical
homebuyer shows that it’s not just buying any homes: It’s buying the
specific houses with the greatest potential to be wealth-building for the
middle class.

It’s not exactly accurate that investors are “buying every single-family
house they can find,” as some have suggested. If that were true, their
market share in the United States wouldn’t be a piddling 15 percent. They’
re really buying up the stock of relatively inexpensive single-family homes
built since the 1970s in growing metro areas. They mostly ignore bigger and
more expensive houses, especially ones that are move-in ready: Wealthy
boomers and the nation’s finance and tech bros nab those properties. And
they’re also ignoring cities with stable or shrinking populations, like
Providence and Pittsburgh.

ADVERTISEMENT

But investors are depleting the inventory of the precise houses that might
otherwise be obtainable for younger, working- and middle-class households,
in the cities where those workers can easily find good-paying jobs, like
Atlanta (22 percent of home purchases according to Redfin data), Charlotte (
22 percent), and Phoenix (20 percent). More importantly, they’re able to
scour those markets scientifically and systematically to make cash offers on
the most attractively priced properties. While normal people buy houses
when they actually need to move somewhere, (savvy) investors buy houses
several years before a bunch of people need to move to an area. Whether they
’re tracking where major employers are building new offices or looking at
public school enrollment data, being ahead of the market gives big firms a
big leg up.

And in case you were assuming that converting houses to rentals would flood
the market and bring down rents, don’t get your hopes up: As Invitation
Homes tells its investors, “We operate in markets with strong demand
drivers, high barriers to entry, and high rent growth potential.”

While renting might make sense for some people, especially people who move a
lot, it often sucks, particularly in the United States, where we don’t
have especially strong protections for tenants. The business strategy of the
country’s biggest landlords, Invitation Homes and American Homes 4 Rent,
does not seem to be, “Make renting with us so delightful that if my tenants
have to move cities, they’ll specifically seek out another property owned
by our company.” Based on reports from Reuters, the New York Times, and the
Atlantic, it appears to be closer to “Squeeze our tenants for every penny,
avoid making repairs, let black mold and raw sewage accumulate, and count
on the fact that moving is a huge, expensive hassle.”

Our current system of encouraging homeownership is by no means perfect, and
it places a lot of unnecessary risk onto the “balance sheets” of the
middle class, but it’s worked out financially for most of the people who
have been lucky enough to own a home. The implicit and explicit subsidies
the government has given to Americans buying their first homes have been the
biggest handout the American middle class has ever received (a handout
notably denied to Black Americans for much of the 20th century, one
explanation for the current size of the racial wealth gap).

Laurie Goodman, vice president of housing finance policy at the Urban
Institute, points out that policymakers could take steps to level the
playing field between investors and the rest of us. She told me that buyers
who need to borrow money using Federal Housing Administration loans, or
those who need a rehab loan for a fixer-upper, have a particularly tough
time competing against Wall Street firms. FHA paperwork often gets delayed,
slowing down the purchase process, so home sellers often don’t want to sell
to FHA buyers, even if their bids are competitive. That’s a solvable
problem. And loans for properties that need renovations, Goodman says, are
both cumbersome and expensive. Rethinking the processes for FHA and rehab
loans could, “put individuals on a more equal footing,” she explained.

ADVERTISEMENT

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Turning.
If you don’t want all of America’s land and housing to end up in the
portfolios of the 1 percent, there’s ultimately one very simple solution:
Tax the rich. After all, the companies buying the houses are ultimately
owned by people (or in some cases, universities and churches, which are
their own cans of tax-advantaged rich-people worms). At the same time that
the working-class is going hungry, rich people are doing so outstandingly
well that they are running out of easy places to park their cash, which is
why they’re buying 2,000 square-foot houses in the Phoenix suburbs via
their ownership stakes in these funds.

This is all part of a long-standing trend: As inequality in the United
States increases, the financial elite invests less in the types of things
that could create jobs, like R&D or new factories, and more into directly
extracting wealth from the working class. One way to do that? Becoming their
landlords.


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awaydream
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发信人: awaydream (昆仑天下), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 14:39:50 2021, 美东)

应该是自住房反向抵押贷款,就是拿自己的房子做抵押,
向银行借钱,借到的钱再去加杠杆投资新的房子。

一旦要是经济形势反转,房市下滑,这种杠杆可以把他搞破产的。

杠杆是风险和利润倍增器, 一旦上升,加倍赚钱;一旦下滑,
很快腰斩膝盖斩。房子已经涨了十多年了,这个时候再上倍增器,
我看,他们是好日子过腻歪了。







【 在 yonghehong (yonghehong) 的大作中提到: 】
: 据说是把自住房refinance, 让自己欠银行更多钱,把差价拿出来买投资方,据说利率
: 就是自住房利率,没有高。 我不懂,不知道到底怎么操作



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cckyle2001
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发信人: cckyle2001 (谦虚的狼), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 14:52:39 2021, 美东)

zillow 给很高的估价,也愿用这房价收购!
但要收很多费用(包括修理费),我估计10~20%的房价
【 在 awaydream (昆仑天下) 的大作中提到: 】
: zillow 现金买single family house, 不是新鲜事。
: 他们一边炒房子,一边发布房市暴涨的分析数据,一边喊多,
: 普通人很容易被他们操纵的。
: 当然,最核心的是Fed常年压低利息,操纵CPI数据,
: 大量印钱,给他们降低融资成本打鸡血。
: 房地产要是崩盘,zillow, redfin这些公司搞不好要破产。



--
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smallburrito
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发信人: smallburrito (smallburrito), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 14:55:04 2021, 美东)

Institutional ownership remains a very small part of the overall market –
just 200,000 homes, or 0.2 percent of the more than 90 million single-family
units in the U.S.
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awaydream
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发信人: awaydream (昆仑天下), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 15:09:07 2021, 美东)

你的数字是从这里来的,感觉不准。

invitationhouse 一家在亚特拉大就有1.3万房子,

还有很多其他的机构, 不知道这个20万是怎么了的





Snapshot of SFR Market
The single-family rental industry has been the fastest-growing segment of
the housing market since 2006, when NRHC members and other investors saw an
opportunity to professionalize the existing market. The industry has grown
30 percent since 2007, compared with 15 percent for multifamily rentals
during that same period.

Our members are largely no longer buying homes and are instead focusing on
optimizing their business models and using new technologies to improve the
renter experience.

Consolidation is also continuing to reshape the industry in exciting ways,
as owner-operators of all sizes gain insights about their markets and refine
best practices of operating at scale.

Institutional ownership remains a very small part of the overall market –
just 200,000 homes, or 0.2 percent of the more than 90 million single-family
units in the U.S. Similarly, NRHC members comprise just 2 percent of the 16
-million-home market.
【 在 smallburrito (smallburrito) 的大作中提到: 】
: Institutional ownership remains a very small part of the overall market –
: just 200,000 homes, or 0.2 percent of the more than 90 million single-
family
:  units in the U.S.



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acrofred
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发信人: acrofred (XXXXX), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 15:14:50 2021, 美东)

BLK炒房团据说加价百分之二三十疯狂拿房?以后美国中产也得倡导租房了。。。
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stobit
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发信人: stobit (stobit), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 16:24:47 2021, 美东)

就是要让以后大多数人只能租房
韭菜月月都可以割 好日无边

【 在 acrofred (XXXXX) 的大作中提到: 】
: BLK炒房团据说加价百分之二三十疯狂拿房?以后美国中产也得倡导租房了。。。




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kaname
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发信人: kaname (暖玉生烟), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 16:27:39 2021, 美东)

美国人口不会有问题的,大量南美年轻人涌入,我家还缺一个五块钱/h的gardener 😂

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Icanfly888
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发信人: Icanfly888 (流氓大亨), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 16:28:41 2021, 美东)

不要小看炒房团的厉害,要顺势而为。
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lvmj
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发信人: lvmj (lvmj), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 18:23:30 2021, 美东)

买地做trailer house吧。

【 在 stobit (stobit) 的大作中提到: 】
: 就是要让以后大多数人只能租房
: 韭菜月月都可以割 好日无边



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HarvardThief
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发信人: HarvardThief (博后肄业全仓踢球), 信区: Stock
标  题: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 20:40:52 2021, 美东)

不几把买了,就这么简单
拉上天也跟咱没关系
要是房租再涨上天日子不好过了
卷铺走人,此地不留爷自有留爷处
一定要从心里牛逼,不在乎
你才有真正的自由
就一个逼养房子,别那么当回事

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smallburrito
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发信人: smallburrito (smallburrito), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 美国的房子都是华尔街炒房团搞起来的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 26 20:49:29 2021, 美东)

国内的人不懂美国的房子,维护起来要操很多心的,
机构买了不住都空置在哪里,房子就长MOLD发水腐烂
各种各样的问题,一百万的房子买了放两年,就只值
50万了
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