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最近原油的走向很不正常
作者:awaydream
发表时间:2018-11-09
更新时间:2018-11-09
浏览:16次
评论:1篇
地址:152.
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中期选举结束了,Trump还搞油价,是不是脑子有点发疯了?



最近的原油跌这么凶,很不正常呀。

Trump脑子糊涂了? 中国每天进口接近1000万桶油,
价格拉下来15刀, 等于每天送中国1.5亿美元。

如果再把原油拉回到30美元一桶, 中国每天节省5亿美元。
直接切断中美贸易,美国的贸易顺差一分钱都不要,
都能坚持下去了。

Trump一边打贸易战卡中国,一边拉低油价给中国输血,
这种傻逼折腾法,不是穷折腾吗?



至于OPEC增产100万桶每天啥的,还不够中国新增加的需求量多,
印度也是嗷嗷地进口石油。讲供大于求的故事,讲的自己都信了?

总之,这事有点奇怪。

Trump卖完乖,收买完选民,肯定要回头的。



中国10月原油日进口量创历史新高

https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/nyzx/2018-11-09/doc-ihmutuea8456542.shtml



在全球贸易摩擦升级的氛围下,中国进出口贸易却双双意外走高。

  受地炼创纪录的需求和健康利润的支撑,中国原油每日进口量在10月份创下历史新高。

  尽管需求在冬季限产前仍然保持强劲势头,但中国10月份铁矿(521, -3.00, -0.57%)石进口量仍然降至四个月以来的低位,反映出主要供应商的出货量减缓。

  同比来看,10月原油和成品油表现强劲,进口量同比涨幅均超过30%。

  环比来看,原油同比上涨了9.64%,成品油环比下跌近13%。

  海关数据周四显示,在地炼创纪录的需求和健康利润的支撑下,中国原油每日进口量在10月份创下历史新高。10月份进口量较上年同期增长32%,达到4080万吨,即每天961万桶,打破了2018年4月每日960万桶的记录。今年前10个月的进口量同比增长8.1%至37716万吨,即每日906万桶。

  根据Refinitiv Oil Research and Forecasts的分析师Emma Li的说法,这些石油加工商在本月购买了822万吨原油,这是自2015年北京开始向他们发放进口配额以来的最高月度数量。

  值得注意的是,CNBC指出,如果不是中海油惠州石油工厂10月开始了长达两个月的业务调整抑制了一部分海外采购量,中国10月原油进口量可能更高。

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共有1条评论
1   [awaydream 于 2018-11-15 11:47:00 提到] [FROM: 152.]
发信人: awaydream (昆仑天下), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 我的天然气的分析
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Nov 15 11:46:17 2018, 美东)

Trump真是够二的,晃点完中国,晃点沙特。

前面大张旗鼓要制裁伊朗,又声称要维持油价不能暴涨,
让沙特带领OPEC增产,以填补空间;

结果,沙特答应帮忙了,Trump有waive 伊朗的制裁,
油价直接跌了20刀。

这也太坑爹了,把沙特当傻逼了。

这回OPEC要减产了,油价要反弹了。





'Duped,' 'tricked' and 'snookered': Oil analysts say
Trump fooled Saudis
into tanking crude prices

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/15/trump-duped-saudis-
into-tanking-oil-prices-
analysts-say.html?
__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cstory%7C&par=yah
oo&
yptr=yahoo


Oil markets analysts say it appears that the Trump
administration tricked
Saudi Arabia and other oil producers into slashing oil
prices.
President Donald Trump pressured the Saudis to
orchestrate a production
increase ahead of U.S. sanctions on Iran.
The Trump administration threatened to cut Iran's
exports to zero, but
ultimately allowed some of its biggest buyers to
continue importing crude.



Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia pulled off a
challenging U-turn in global
oil market policy, convincing a fractious group of two
dozen nations to hike
output and undercut the oil market rally that was
filling their coffers.

The Saudis undertook this unpopular task at least in
part to help its allies
in the White House — and for its troubles, the kingdom
was rewarded with a
series of blistering tweets from President Donald
Trump and the biggest
pullback in oil prices since the historic downturn of
2014.

Oil market analysts say it now appears that Trump
hoodwinked Saudi Arabia,
fooling the U.S. ally into pushing the oil market into
oversupply and
sparking a roughly 25 percent drop in crude prices.
That accomplished Trump'
s goal of driving down energy costs for Americans, but
left nations
dependent on oil income like Saudi Arabia with the
prospect of shrinking
revenues.

Who is MBS? The Prince at the center of Saudi Arabia's
controversy Who
is MBS? The Prince at the center of Saudi Arabia's
controversy
11:10 AM ET Fri, 19 Oct 2018 | 03:57
The analysts say Trump essentially bamboozled the
Saudis by threatening for
months to implement sanctions against Iran so
strictly, the Islamic Republic
's exports would go into free fall. But when the
administration's deadline
for oil buyers to quit Iranian oil arrived on Nov. 4,
Trump instead dolled
out six-month exemptions to some of the country's
biggest customers.

"They got sort of tricked here," said John Kilduff,
founding partner of
energy hedge fund Again Capital. "The Russians and the
Saudis in particular
ramped up production, ramped up exports ahead of what
was supposed to be
severe sanctions on Iran, and when the administration
gave the eight waivers
to Iran's largest buyers, it undercut that whole
equation."

"So now we've tripped into an oversupply situation
almost overnight because
of the severe reaction by Russia and the Saudis to
cover for Iran losses,
which never materialized."

To be sure, the sanctions have shrunk Iran's exports
by about 1 million
barrels per day. Few thought the Trump administration
would actually achieve
its stated goal of cutting its rival's shipments to
zero.

But the sanctions, backed by the administration's
hawkish rhetoric, cut Iran
's exports more quickly than many anticipated. The
market also expected
another big drop after the Nov. 4 deadline passed.
That fear fueled a rally
that sent oil prices to four-year highs.

Kilduff: Skeptical about OPEC proposal to cut output
Kilduff: Skeptical
about OPEC proposal to cut output
6:59 AM ET Wed, 14 Nov 2018 | 03:26
Over the last six weeks, that rally has unwound in
spectacular fashion, with
oil prices tumbling into a bear market. The pullback
has several causes,
including a weaker demand outlook for crude and a
wider market sell-off, but
analysts say OPEC's output hike earlier this year and
the sanctions waivers
play a major part in the oil price plunge.

"In early October there was this expectation that a
lot of Iran's barrels
were going to come off the market, and so essentially
Saudi Arabia was duped
into increasing production," said Matt Smith, head of
commodities research
at tanker-tracking firm ClipperData.

Smith says it's uncertain the situation has unfolded
exactly as the Trump
administration intended, but it has ultimately worked
out in the president's
favor — though potentially at a cost to U.S.-Saudi
relations.

"They've really done a good job of decreasing that oil
price, but it has
been at the expense of some of those relations there,
because surely the
Saudis have got to be pretty unhappy with the way
things have played out
here."

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih acknowledged
this week that Iran's
exports didn't fall as much as expected.

He also announced that Saudi Arabia will ship 500,000
fewer bpd in December
and said OPEC and its allies may cut production by 1
million bpd next year.
That decision could come in a few weeks when OPEC,
Russia and other
producers meet to review their current policy of
easing output curbs that
have been in place since last year.

Saudi Arabia will be the swing oil supplier in OPEC
and the world, says
expert Saudi Arabia will be the swing oil supplier
in OPEC and the world,
says expert
7:11 AM ET Wed, 14 Nov 2018 | 03:15
Trump took to Twitter a few hours later, tweeting,
"Hopefully, Saudi Arabia
and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil
prices should be much lower
based on supply!"

The president has previously used Twitter to blame
OPEC for high oil prices
and demand the group take action to cut costs. At the
U.N. General Assembly
this year, he told world leaders that OPEC is ripping
them off.

Analysts say Falih's comments this week might have
pushed oil prices higher,
if not for Trump's tweet.

"I think the market is ignoring [the Saudis] because
of Trump," said Helima
Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC
Capital Markets. "I think if
you didn't have the Trump tweet, there would not be
this skepticism. Right
now, there's a view that the Saudis will reverse
course because of Trump.
There's a sense that Trump really has them over a
barrel at this point."

The kingdom is in a precarious position after a Saudi
prosecutor
acknowledged that government agents killed journalist
and U.S. resident
Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul
last month, following
earlier denials by the state.

Saudi need to signal they will take action on oil:
Analyst A 'signal' of
action is needed from Saudi Arabia: Strategist
1:41 AM ET Wed, 14 Nov 2018 | 04:30
Gary Ross, CEO at Black Gold Investors, believes the
cartel will ultimately
agree to cut output when it meets with Russia and
other producers next month
. However, in his view it may be too little too late.

"They're pretty much snookered by Trump," Ross said.
"I mean, Trump led them
to believe that the Iranian exports would be zero. It
turned out they're
going to be 1.2 to 1.5 million barrels a day, way
higher than people thought
."

"Broadly speaking, it's an oversupply story, and I
think they will cut back,
but they're not likely to cut back enough to drive
prices back up to
anything like $80 Brent," he told CNBC. "I think we're
going to be in a $60
to $70 Brent market for some time."

The White House did not immediately return a request
for comment.

Tom DiChristopher CNBC
Tom DiChristopher
 
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