发信人: awaydream (昆仑天下), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 我的天然气的分析
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Nov 15 11:46:17 2018, 美东)
'Duped,' 'tricked' and 'snookered': Oil analysts say
Trump fooled Saudis
into tanking crude prices
Oil markets analysts say it appears that the Trump
Saudi Arabia and other oil producers into slashing oil
President Donald Trump pressured the Saudis to
orchestrate a production
increase ahead of U.S. sanctions on Iran.
The Trump administration threatened to cut Iran's
exports to zero, but
ultimately allowed some of its biggest buyers to
continue importing crude.
Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia pulled off a
challenging U-turn in global
oil market policy, convincing a fractious group of two
dozen nations to hike
output and undercut the oil market rally that was
filling their coffers.
The Saudis undertook this unpopular task at least in
part to help its allies
in the White House — and for its troubles, the kingdom
was rewarded with a
series of blistering tweets from President Donald
Trump and the biggest
pullback in oil prices since the historic downturn of
Oil market analysts say it now appears that Trump
hoodwinked Saudi Arabia,
fooling the U.S. ally into pushing the oil market into
sparking a roughly 25 percent drop in crude prices.
That accomplished Trump'
s goal of driving down energy costs for Americans, but
dependent on oil income like Saudi Arabia with the
prospect of shrinking
Who is MBS? The Prince at the center of Saudi Arabia's
is MBS? The Prince at the center of Saudi Arabia's
11:10 AM ET Fri, 19 Oct 2018 | 03:57
The analysts say Trump essentially bamboozled the
Saudis by threatening for
months to implement sanctions against Iran so
strictly, the Islamic Republic
's exports would go into free fall. But when the
for oil buyers to quit Iranian oil arrived on Nov. 4,
Trump instead dolled
out six-month exemptions to some of the country's
"They got sort of tricked here," said John Kilduff,
founding partner of
energy hedge fund Again Capital. "The Russians and the
Saudis in particular
ramped up production, ramped up exports ahead of what
was supposed to be
severe sanctions on Iran, and when the administration
gave the eight waivers
to Iran's largest buyers, it undercut that whole
"So now we've tripped into an oversupply situation
almost overnight because
of the severe reaction by Russia and the Saudis to
cover for Iran losses,
which never materialized."
To be sure, the sanctions have shrunk Iran's exports
by about 1 million
barrels per day. Few thought the Trump administration
would actually achieve
its stated goal of cutting its rival's shipments to
But the sanctions, backed by the administration's
hawkish rhetoric, cut Iran
's exports more quickly than many anticipated. The
market also expected
another big drop after the Nov. 4 deadline passed.
That fear fueled a rally
that sent oil prices to four-year highs.
Kilduff: Skeptical about OPEC proposal to cut output
about OPEC proposal to cut output
6:59 AM ET Wed, 14 Nov 2018 | 03:26
Over the last six weeks, that rally has unwound in
spectacular fashion, with
oil prices tumbling into a bear market. The pullback
has several causes,
including a weaker demand outlook for crude and a
wider market sell-off, but
analysts say OPEC's output hike earlier this year and
the sanctions waivers
play a major part in the oil price plunge.
"In early October there was this expectation that a
lot of Iran's barrels
were going to come off the market, and so essentially
Saudi Arabia was duped
into increasing production," said Matt Smith, head of
at tanker-tracking firm ClipperData.
Smith says it's uncertain the situation has unfolded
exactly as the Trump
administration intended, but it has ultimately worked
out in the president's
favor — though potentially at a cost to U.S.-Saudi
"They've really done a good job of decreasing that oil
price, but it has
been at the expense of some of those relations there,
because surely the
Saudis have got to be pretty unhappy with the way
things have played out
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih acknowledged
this week that Iran's
exports didn't fall as much as expected.
He also announced that Saudi Arabia will ship 500,000
fewer bpd in December
and said OPEC and its allies may cut production by 1
million bpd next year.
That decision could come in a few weeks when OPEC,
Russia and other
producers meet to review their current policy of
easing output curbs that
have been in place since last year.
Saudi Arabia will be the swing oil supplier in OPEC
and the world, says
expert Saudi Arabia will be the swing oil supplier
in OPEC and the world,
7:11 AM ET Wed, 14 Nov 2018 | 03:15
Trump took to Twitter a few hours later, tweeting,
"Hopefully, Saudi Arabia
and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil
prices should be much lower
based on supply!"
The president has previously used Twitter to blame
OPEC for high oil prices
and demand the group take action to cut costs. At the
U.N. General Assembly
this year, he told world leaders that OPEC is ripping
Analysts say Falih's comments this week might have
pushed oil prices higher,
if not for Trump's tweet.
"I think the market is ignoring [the Saudis] because
of Trump," said Helima
Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC
Capital Markets. "I think if
you didn't have the Trump tweet, there would not be
this skepticism. Right
now, there's a view that the Saudis will reverse
course because of Trump.
There's a sense that Trump really has them over a
barrel at this point."
The kingdom is in a precarious position after a Saudi
acknowledged that government agents killed journalist
and U.S. resident
Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul
last month, following
earlier denials by the state.
Saudi need to signal they will take action on oil:
Analyst A 'signal' of
action is needed from Saudi Arabia: Strategist
1:41 AM ET Wed, 14 Nov 2018 | 04:30
Gary Ross, CEO at Black Gold Investors, believes the
cartel will ultimately
agree to cut output when it meets with Russia and
other producers next month
. However, in his view it may be too little too late.
"They're pretty much snookered by Trump," Ross said.
"I mean, Trump led them
to believe that the Iranian exports would be zero. It
turned out they're
going to be 1.2 to 1.5 million barrels a day, way
higher than people thought
"Broadly speaking, it's an oversupply story, and I
think they will cut back,
but they're not likely to cut back enough to drive
prices back up to
anything like $80 Brent," he told CNBC. "I think we're
going to be in a $60
to $70 Brent market for some time."
The White House did not immediately return a request
Tom DiChristopher CNBC