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中期选举结束了, 贸易战估计很快要重启了
作者:awaydream
发表时间:2018-11-08
更新时间:2018-11-08
浏览:80次
评论:1篇
地址:152.
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地区差异
军事
美利坚见闻

10月份中国出口数据这么好,这不是太好的事情,说明美国加的关税范围
和幅度都不够,Trump很可能会再加把劲。搞不好年底之前,中国所有的出口
美国的东西都被加到增税的list里面。

如果中国弄个假数据出来,说中国对美国出口减少,矛盾缓和,可能会更好点。

说美国贸易战输了,或者Trump输了的,未免言之太早,这次的贸易战是一个
长期的贸易战,不是一年半年的事情,搞不好要八到十年,就是Trump干完
第二任总统了,都可能还没打完。

当然事实也可能证明我是胡说八道,都是有可能的。



10月份进出口数据双超预期
2018年11月09日 03:22作者:孟珂来源: 证券日报 编辑:东方财富网
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  11月8日,海关总署发布数据显示,今年10月份我国进出口总值2.75万亿元,增长22.9%。其中,出口1.49万亿元,增长20.1%;进口1.26万亿元,增长26.3%;贸易顺差2336.3亿元,收窄5%。

  东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青昨日对《证券日报》记者表示,10月份进出口表现较为强劲的原因,一方面是由于外需保持扩张,基数走低,加之人民币贬值及出口抢跑等影响,使得10份月出口增速再超预期;此外,对新兴经济体出口加速亦为主要拉动力。另一方面则受基数偏低、大宗商品价格上涨及政策发力共同影响,拉动了10月份进口增速回升。


  华泰证券宏观首席分析师李超表示,随着首届中国国际进口博览会的成功召开,无疑会进一步优化我国全球贸易布局并拉动进口。与此同时,由于国内政策转向扩内需、稳经济,预计未来进口增速超预期走低概率较低。

Trump’s Tariffs Have Fully Kicked In—Yet China’s Exports Grow

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-exports-show-surprising-resilience-in-october-despite-tariffs-1541648024



pdated Nov. 8, 2018 5:00 a.m. ET
BEIJING—China’s exports surged anew last month on the back of resilient demand, defying many economists’ expectations for a slowdown from the trade fight with the U.S.

Demand for Chinese goods grew in developed and developing markets, from the U.S. to India, according to customs data released Thursday.

“It’s not just the U.S., wherever you look, especially the emerging markets, demand is solid,” said Liu Yaxin, an economist at China Merchants Securities .

The performance, economists said, suggested China is getting a boost from surprisingly healthy global demand and perhaps from a weaker yuan. Many economists attributed the export boom of recent months to businesses frontloading shipments before tariffs take effect, and they had expected that trend to fade.

Yangshan Deep Water Port, part of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone.
Yangshan Deep Water Port, part of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone. PHOTO: ALY SONG/REUTERS
China’s total exports rose 15.6% from a year earlier, the customs administration said, which tops the 14.5% year-over-year increase in September. Economists expected 11% growth.

Exports to India, Hong Kong and Brazil all grew by more than 20% last month from year ago, according to calculations by The Wall Street Journal based on customs data. Exports to the U.S. and the European Union also held up, rising 13% and 15% respectively.

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Meanwhile, China’s appetite grew for global commodities, boosting imports 21.4% in October from a year earlier, compared with a 14.3% increase the previous month. Imports of crude oil jumped 89% on year.

Imports from the U.S., however, dropped 1.8% in October from a year earlier, following a 1.2% decline in September. The trade gap with the U.S. narrowed to $31.8 billion last month from September’s record monthly high of $34.1 billion.

Still, by Chinese figures, the near $260 billion surplus for the first 10 months this year is up 15% from a year earlier and puts China on track to post another record surplus with the U.S. Last year, China reported the largest-ever annual surplus of some $275.8 billion. The U.S. estimates the gap was even larger, at $375.2 billion.

The imbalance has been a sore point with the U.S. and is cited by the Trump administration as a reason for imposing tariffs. Punitive levies imposed by the U.S. and China now cover about 60% of their trade in goods. The Trump administration has said it would hike the rate on some of those goods and is considering expanding tariffs to more products. The latest round of U.S. tariffs, covering $200 billion in Chinese products, took effect in late September, making October the first full month hit by all the Trump administration’s levies.

Several economists said some frontloading of export orders is still taking place.

Betty Wang, an economist at ANZ, pointed to continued strength in the exports of electrical and mechanical products as evidence of rushed shipments. These products, which account for about 60% of China’s total exports and are the nation’s biggest export items to the U.S., increased 15.3% globally in October, she said. Ms. Wang expects to see continued frontloading in the coming months before it tapers off.

China Merchants’ Ms. Liu expects rising labor costs are also going to make exports less attractive. “It’s hard to imagine that such double-digit growth in exports can last long,” she said.

—Liyan Qi and Grace Zhu.

Appeared in the November 9, 2018, print edition as 'Chinese Exports Shrug Off Tariffs.'

提示: 本博文来自于 Military 版

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共有1条评论
1   [awaydream 于 2018-11-08 21:43:55 提到] [FROM: 152.]
发信人: awaydream (昆仑天下), 信区: Military
标 题: Re: 中期选举结束了, 贸易战估计很快要重启了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Nov 8 21:43:33 2018, 美东)

可以讲事实,也可以讲道理,纯粹的谩骂是没有用的。
年底之前,很可能还要来一波大的,我觉得贸易战这个事情
不会轻易就这么收场的。

美国制裁伊朗都是反反复复很多进退,折腾很多年。对于中国
这样大国,这样的竞争对手,他肯定会更有耐心,不会三下两下
就结束了。

还是早点做好准备的好。

当然也可以假装啥都不知道,反正也改变不了什么。
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