2018年11月09日 03:22作者：孟珂来源： 证券日报 编辑：东方财富网
Trump’s Tariffs Have Fully Kicked In—Yet China’s Exports Grow
pdated Nov. 8, 2018 5:00 a.m. ET
BEIJING—China’s exports surged anew last month on the back of resilient demand, defying many economists’ expectations for a slowdown from the trade fight with the U.S.
Demand for Chinese goods grew in developed and developing markets, from the U.S. to India, according to customs data released Thursday.
“It’s not just the U.S., wherever you look, especially the emerging markets, demand is solid,” said Liu Yaxin, an economist at China Merchants Securities .
The performance, economists said, suggested China is getting a boost from surprisingly healthy global demand and perhaps from a weaker yuan. Many economists attributed the export boom of recent months to businesses frontloading shipments before tariffs take effect, and they had expected that trend to fade.
Yangshan Deep Water Port, part of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone.
Yangshan Deep Water Port, part of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone. PHOTO: ALY SONG/REUTERS
China’s total exports rose 15.6% from a year earlier, the customs administration said, which tops the 14.5% year-over-year increase in September. Economists expected 11% growth.
Exports to India, Hong Kong and Brazil all grew by more than 20% last month from year ago, according to calculations by The Wall Street Journal based on customs data. Exports to the U.S. and the European Union also held up, rising 13% and 15% respectively.
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Meanwhile, China’s appetite grew for global commodities, boosting imports 21.4% in October from a year earlier, compared with a 14.3% increase the previous month. Imports of crude oil jumped 89% on year.
Imports from the U.S., however, dropped 1.8% in October from a year earlier, following a 1.2% decline in September. The trade gap with the U.S. narrowed to $31.8 billion last month from September’s record monthly high of $34.1 billion.
Still, by Chinese figures, the near $260 billion surplus for the first 10 months this year is up 15% from a year earlier and puts China on track to post another record surplus with the U.S. Last year, China reported the largest-ever annual surplus of some $275.8 billion. The U.S. estimates the gap was even larger, at $375.2 billion.
The imbalance has been a sore point with the U.S. and is cited by the Trump administration as a reason for imposing tariffs. Punitive levies imposed by the U.S. and China now cover about 60% of their trade in goods. The Trump administration has said it would hike the rate on some of those goods and is considering expanding tariffs to more products. The latest round of U.S. tariffs, covering $200 billion in Chinese products, took effect in late September, making October the first full month hit by all the Trump administration’s levies.
Several economists said some frontloading of export orders is still taking place.
Betty Wang, an economist at ANZ, pointed to continued strength in the exports of electrical and mechanical products as evidence of rushed shipments. These products, which account for about 60% of China’s total exports and are the nation’s biggest export items to the U.S., increased 15.3% globally in October, she said. Ms. Wang expects to see continued frontloading in the coming months before it tapers off.
China Merchants’ Ms. Liu expects rising labor costs are also going to make exports less attractive. “It’s hard to imagine that such double-digit growth in exports can last long,” she said.
—Liyan Qi and Grace Zhu.
Appeared in the November 9, 2018, print edition as 'Chinese Exports Shrug Off Tariffs.'
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