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大跌之后,美股将往何处去?
作者:deer2005
发表时间:2014-10-11
更新时间:2014-10-12
浏览:1589次
评论:20篇
地址:75.
::: 栏目 :::
联储政策5
新闻观察4
联储政策3
名人坛3
市场风险2
生药医疗2
中国中概4
中国中概5
美股个股4
新闻观察3
投资策略3
美股大盘2
高盛观点2
休闲话题5
金银商品2
牛股追踪3
牛股追踪4
原油能源3
美股大盘3
股事杂谈3
新闻观察5
生药医疗3
货币战争3
高盛观点3
美股板块3
股市前瞻2
美股个股5
美股大盘5
股事杂谈6
美股大盘4
股事杂谈5
休闲话题6
股事杂谈4
联储政策4
休闲话题7
休闲话题8
中国中概6
新闻观察6
原油能源4
休闲话题3
美股个股3
原油能源2
牛股追踪1
生药医疗1
热点话题1
股票期权1
股市前瞻1
投资策略1
股海拾贝1
美股评论1
美股板块1
股事杂谈1
休闲话题4
牛股追踪5
美股板块2
中国中概1
新闻观察1
美股个股1
美股大盘1
牛股追踪2
金银商品1
货币战争1
中国中概3
联储政策2
美股评论2
货币战争2
股事杂谈2
名人坛2
投资策略2
股海拾贝2
新闻观察2
休闲话题2
休闲话题1
原油能源1
市场风险1
联储政策1
名人坛1
高盛观点1
美股个股2
中国中概2
牛股追踪6

大跌之后,美股将往何处去?(老鹿原创)

历经多年的美股大牛市在上周迎来了急风骤雨式的暴跌,SPX出现了2012年5月以来的
最大周跌幅(>3%),而市场波动指数(恐慌指数VIX)录得2012年12月以来的最大
周涨幅(重回20以上)。这让非常习惯于抄低的牛牛们懵了,也让喜欢牛口夺食的熊
熊门惊愕不已。

大跌之后,美股将往何处去?继续跌(南下),或重回牛势(北上),抑或横盘
整理(猪市)?首先,可能需要明白以下两个关键问题:

一、多年大牛市的动力是什么?

老鹿综合分析后认为,美股能够爬上目前的高位,动力有三:1、市场对美国经济复苏
和增长的乐观预期,而且美国经济也出现逐步复苏的迹象,比如GDP增长良好、工作岗
位增加和失业率下降、消费者信心增强等;2、美联储多轮经济刺激计划的实施和宽松
的货币政策(QE);3、国际地缘政治不稳定,大量外来资金流入美国,推高了股市。

二、当前股市大跌的原因和背景如何?

当前的美国经济和政治处于非常敏感时期,诸多现实因素导致美股暴跌,主要因素可
概括以下五点:1、美联储货币宽松刺激计划(QE3)在10月结束,没有后续刺激计
划,而且将加息问题提上议事日程,股市上行的主要动力没了;2、伴随QE终止和加息
而来的美元大幅升值,抑制了高风险投资行为;3、欧洲、日本经济出现再次衰退迹
象,而作为全球经济增长火车头的中国经济增长也放缓,这给美国经济增长带来了不
确定性;4、美国即将迎来11份的中期选举,这也是美国经济政策的重要不确定因素;
5、国际地缘政治不稳定性在增加,包括俄-美、俄-欧对抗,中东战乱,Ebola疫情蔓
延导致的恐慌情绪在增加。

当市场面临不确定性增加时,自然会出现获利离场。在股市处于如此高位的情况下,
很容易出现恐慌性抛盘,引起股市大失血,而且这种趋势难于在短时间内逆转。美股
三季度财报已经拉开序幕,AA的优异结果并没有推高其股价,反而大跌了,这决不是
好现象。

老鹿认为,在目前的大背景下,美股北上阻力太大,必将朝阻力小的方向去。美股南
下趋势已形成,将剧烈振荡下行,不知道何处见尽头,何处是底!

老鹿一家之言,不构成投资建议。YMYD!!

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共有20条评论
1   [deer2005 于 2014-10-17 17:08:05 提到] [FROM: 152.]
在fed的大饼引诱下,今天股市终于大涨了,一扫过去两周来的阴
霾。

但大盘到底了么?未必!

有空的话,将对此再做粗浅分析。
 
2   [deer2005 于 2014-10-16 17:33:28 提到] [FROM: 152.]
房地美:美国抵押贷款利率创年内新低
2014年10月16日 22:28 新浪财经

  新浪财经讯 北京时间10月16日晚间消息,美国住房抵押贷款
公司房地美(Freddie Mac)在今天发布的周报中称,美国30年期
抵押贷款平均利率为3.97%,创2013年6月以来新低。

  报告称,上周美国30年期抵押贷款平均利率为4.12%,一年之
前这一数据为4.28%。

  根据报告,美国15年期抵押贷款平均利率降至3.18%,上周为
3.30%,去年同期为3.33%。(永生)
 
3   [deer2005 于 2014-10-16 17:31:36 提到] [FROM: 152.]
美初请失业金人数降至26.4万创14年新低
2014年10月16日 20:46 新浪财经

  新浪财经讯 北京时间10月16日晚消息,美国政府发布的首次
申请失业救济报告显示,截至10月11日的一周中,初请失业金人
数环比下降2.3万,至26.4万,后者创下2000年4月以来新低,这
表明美国雇主裁员的人数继续下降,劳动力市场状况继续好转。

  据MW调查,经济学家平均预期初请失业金人数将环比增至
28.9万,将略高于此前一周的28.7万。美劳工部还称,初请失业
金人数的四周移动均值环比降4250人,至28.35万,后者亦打破
2000年以来最低纪录。四周移动均值可平滑周度数据的波动,能
更好地体现劳动力市场的基本发展态势。

  劳工部数据还显示,截至10月4日的一周中,持续领取救济人
数环比攀升7千,至239万。持续领取救济人数指的是至少已领到
第二周失业救济的人,与初请人数相比,其统计和公布存在一周的
滞后。

  此外,持续领取救济人数的近四周移动均值环比降1.075万,
至240万,后者是2006年6月以来最低的。(立悟/编译)
 
4   [deer2005 于 2014-10-16 15:34:59 提到] [FROM: 152.]
Fed official wants to keep up QE as inflation
expectations slip

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-official-wants-
keep-qe-170830150.html

(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve should keep buying
bonds for longer than planned in the face of
volatile markets and falling inflation
expectations, a top U.S. central banker said on
Thursday, even as another Fed policymaker warned
against an over-reaction.

James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, is
the only official at the central bank to publicly
suggest putting on hold the Fed's widely
telegraphed plan to halt its asset-purchase program
later this month. Yields on U.S. bonds, which have
plunged the last few days, rebounded after his
comments.

"We can go on pause on the taper at this juncture
and wait until we see how the data shakes out into
December," Bullard said on Bloomberg Television.
"Inflation expectations are dropping in the U.S.
and that is something that a central bank cannot
abide."

"A reasonable response by the Fed in this situation
would be to invoke the clause ... that says the
taper was data dependent," he added.

Encouraged by strengthening U.S. growth and falling
unemployment, the Fed has incrementally tapered its
bond buying program from $85 billion originally to
$15 billion this month. It was set to shutter the
program at a policy meeting Oct. 28-29, a plan that
Fed Chair Janet Yellen may well stand by.

But stock market values and bond yields have
dropped sharply in recent weeks as investors
fretted over the health of the world economy, with
fears growing that Europe could tip into recession,
damaging the U.S. economy. The dollar has continued
its climb, causing measures of medium-term
inflation expectations to ease.

Bullard, who has long focused on inflation to
inform his policy beliefs, had until Thursday been
seen as a hawkish policymaker intent on closing the
book on accommodation and raising interest rates
starting early next year.

He said he was sticking with his forecast for a
rate hike in the first quarter of next year for
now, but wanted to see how the market turbulence
played out.

While Bullard, who does not have a vote on policy
this year or next, wants to keep buying $15-billion
in bonds for another couple of months, Philadelphia
Fed President Charles Plosser said the selloff was
not yet significant enough to hurt the U.S. economy
or to garner a response from the central bank.

The Fed should not overreact when the domestic
economy looks stable, Plosser told reporters in
Allentown, Pennsylvania.

"I don't think anything I've heard has suggested to
me it's of a significance ... to throw the U.S.
economy off the tracks," said Plosser, who has a
vote on Fed policy. "It could, but at this point
the numbers just aren't big enough to really get
too excited."

Plosser acknowledged that a big selloff could harm
U.S. consumer demand, but added the strong job
market would offset that. The Fed "would address it
(depending on) how we thought it would affect
inflation and employment," he said.

On Wall Street, the price of the 30-year U.S. bond
dropped more than 1 point and stocks rebounded
after Bullard's comments.

Bets on the timing of a Fed interest rate rise have
fallen back to October or December of 2015, from
mid-2015 a few weeks ago, based on futures markets.
Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and New York Fed
President William Dudley, among other core Fed
decision-makers, have in recent days suggested mid-
2015 was still reasonable timing for a tightening.

Speaking in Billings, Montana on Thursday,
Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota
repeated his view that a rate hike in 2015 would be
inappropriate.
 
5   [deer2005 于 2014-10-16 13:00:24 提到] [FROM: 152.]
Wall Street rebounds after jobless claims, Fed
comment

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/futures-slump-
selling-pressure-continues-114455151.html

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks on Wall Street
rebounded from earlier lows on Thursday to trade
little changed as a flurry of economic reports
helped ease fears a weakening global economy would
begin to affect the United States.

Data on Thursday painted a more optimistic picture
of the U.S. economy, as initial jobless claims fell
to their lowest level in 14 years, after a
disappointing retail sales report in the prior
session added to investor jitters.

Adding to the positive tone, St. Louis Federal
Reserve Bank President James Bullard told Bloomberg
television the U.S. central bank may want to keep
up its bond buying stimulus for now given a drop in
inflation expectations.

"It’s not just what the Fed speakers are saying, it
is who is saying it. Looking at folks who had been
previously been portrayed or perceived as being
perhaps a little bit more hawkish, now having a
much more conciliatory tone is giving a little bit
of ease to investor concerns," said Eric Wiegand,
senior portfolio manager at the Private Client
Reserve of U.S. Bank in New York.

"Couple that with data that isn’t continuing to be
indicative of slowing in the U.S. - the good
jobless claims number, industrial production - what
a relief there."

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) fell 12.05
points, or 0.07 percent, to 16,129.69, the S&P 500
(.SPX) gained 1.59 points, or 0.09 percent, to
1,864.08 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped
2.44 points, or 0.06 percent, to 4,212.88.

Stocks have been under pressure recently on
concerns about weakening global demand and the
possible spread of Ebola. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq
briefly fell into negative territory for the year
in the prior session.

UnitedHealth (UNH.N), up 4.6 percent to $85.94, was
the biggest boost to the Dow and S&P 500, helping
lead equities off their session lows. The largest
U.S. managed care company's third-quarter earnings
topped expectations.

Netflix shares (NFLX.O) plunged 21.3 percent to
$353 as the biggest drag on both the S&P 500 and
Nasdaq 100 (.NDX) after it reported quarterly
results and said it signed up fewer video-streaming
subscribers than forecast for the quarter.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) fell 128.47
points, or 0.8 percent, to 16,013.27, the S&P 500
(.SPX) lost 17.39 points, or 0.93 percent, to
1,845.1 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped
45.57 points, or 1.08 percent, to 4,169.75.

The earnings of S&P 500 companies are expected to
grow 6.9 percent in the third quarter, according to
Thomson Reuters data through Thursday morning, on
revenue growth of 4.1 percent. Google (GOOGL.O) is
expected to report earnings after the closing bell.

The largest percentage gainer on the S&P 500 was
Chesapeake Energy (CHK.N), which rose 15.8 percent,
while the largest percentage decliner was Netflix.

The largest percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 was
Micron Tech (MU.O), which was rising 4.4 percent,
while the largest percentage decliner was Netflix.

Advancing issues were outnumbering declining ones
on the NYSE by 1,976 to 1,006, for a 1.96-to-1
ratio on the upside; on the Nasdaq, 1,689 issues
were rising and 903 falling for a 1.87-to-1 ratio
favoring advancers.

There were no new 52-week highs on the benchmark
S&P 500 index and 15 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite
was recording 9 new highs and 73 new lows.
 
6   [deer2005 于 2014-10-16 00:28:27 提到] [FROM: 75.]
美股跌幅收窄 全因耶伦“密旨”救市
2014年10月16日 11:13 华尔街见闻

  彭博社新闻社15日下午报道,美联储主席耶伦上周末在一个
闭门会议上表示,尽管全球经济放缓、金融市场动荡,她仍对美国
经济持续复苏有信心。该报道发布后,美股跌幅快速收窄,道指较
盘中最低位回升近300点。

  据彭博新闻社援引之情人士称,耶伦上周末在参加非盈利组织
G30会议时表示,美国经济已步入正轨,有望实现3%的增速。随着
失业率进一步下滑,通胀率最终将回升到美联储2%的目标水平。

  美联储发言人Michelle Smith拒绝对本次会议发表评论。
G30会议时间与国际货币基金组织[微博]和世界银行[微博]年度会
议时间接近。G30是非盈利国际组织,包括私人部门、公共部门、
学术界的顶级资深人士。前欧央行行长特里谢任主席,前美联储主
席沃克尔任名誉主席。

  该报道于美国东部时间14:26分发布,随后,美股跌幅快速收
窄。美股昨日开盘即大跌,道指盘中一度跌去近460点,创三年来
最大单日跌幅。标普盘中最大跌幅近3%。至收盘时,道指下跌170
点,标普跌0.8%。

  耶伦最新闭门会议评论与美联储9月会议时官员们的经济预测
大体一致。9月美联储经济预测显示,美国经济在明年增速为
2.6%~3%,通胀在2016年达到1.7%~2%。耶伦在9月17日新闻发布
会上表示,预计美国经济温和扩张。

  2009年6月金融危机结束以来,美国经济平均每年增速为
2.2%,今年8月基于PCE的通胀率为1.5%,今年9月非农失业率降
至5.9%。
 
7   [deer2005 于 2014-10-15 12:56:33 提到] [FROM: 152.]
科技、金融和工业类股票都大跌,这个股市没戏。
 
8   [deer2005 于 2014-10-13 23:43:19 提到] [FROM: 75.]
Dow correction has more room to move

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-correction-more-
room-move-234339671.html

The Dow Jones Industrial Average entered negative
territory for 2014 on Friday, while the S&P 500 and
NASDAQ posted their worst weeks since May 2012,
leading traders to warn of a deeper correction, but
charts suggest a potential buying opportunity.

Related Stories

How the Dow Jones industrial average did Thursday
Associated Press
Stock Market Rallies Back As Nasdaq, Dow Rise 1%
Investor's Business Daily
Chipmakers lead Wall St. selloff; S&P lowest since
May Reuters
US STOCKS-Wall St slumps as Apple drags; S&P breaks
support level Reuters
Wall Street tumbles on Ebola fears; small caps drop
Reuters
The U.S. market has been running hot for months.
It's a well-established and long-term sustainable
trend propelled by 'funny money' available at
virtually no interest. Fundamentally, its suspect,
but technically this has been a trading opportunity
not to be missed.

I have been calling the DOW , S&P 500 and NASDAQ
higher for months in CNBC columns. I have also
warned that these markets will pull back and that a
10 percent correction is a buying opportunity.

If you understand where a 10 percent pullback is
located, you will have the opportunity to take
advantage of this temporary correction in the
trend. A fall below 10 percent is a signal of a
potential trend change.

A 10 percent correction in the DOW would bring the
market back to the center line of the long-term
uptrend. That's still bullish in anyone's language.
A 10 percent correction on the NASDAQ would bring
the market back to just above the support level and
still well within the long-term up-sloping trading
band.

A 10 percent correction on the S&P is more serious.
This would drop the S&P below the support level
near 1850 and below the lower edge of the long-term
Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA). This
development would signal a high potential for a
major trend change. The S&P is the canary in the
coal mine.

Fundamentally, the biggest threat to markets is
Ebola, not ISIS. Ebola has the capacity to rapidly
overwhelm health systems and paralyze work
environments.

You have a choice: Join the screaming chicken
littles or watch the charts and act accordingly. I
know what we will be doing.
 
9   [deer2005 于 2014-10-13 23:23:58 提到] [FROM: 75.]
QE下周终结,股市债市会很狗血,不要急于抄底。
 
10   [deer2005 于 2014-10-13 16:27:41 提到] [FROM: 152.]
满目疮痍啊!
牛牛们撤离了没?希望今天反弹时撤了!
 
11   [deer2005 于 2014-10-13 13:18:10 提到] [FROM: 152.]
This is the most dangerous stock market since 2008

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-most-
dangerous-stock-market-since-2008-2014-10-13

Volatility has returned to the market. To be
specific, the market has rallied, sold off,
rallied, and sold off, all in one week. This is
ideal for day traders but unnerving for individual
investors. It is also a big red warning sign.

To refresh your memory, last week every rally
failed, so the market ended the week on its lows.
Even the October 8th rally of 274 points reversed
direction the next day. It was a monster rally
based on the FOMC minutes, which revealed member’s
concern for global growth. Got that? The market
rallied on bad news. In the mixed-up world of Wall
Street, that meant interest rates would remain low.
Unfortunately for the bulls, the next day the
market fell by 334 points. That’s volatility!

In nontechnical terms, the October 8th manic rally
was a head fake. It might have cheered amateur
investors, but in reality, this has become one of
the most dangerous markets since 2008.
 
12   [deer2005 于 2014-10-13 01:19:16 提到] [FROM: 75.]
美股展望:投资者迎接更加动荡的市况
2014年10月13日 09:45 新浪财经

  路透纽约10月10日 - 美国股市波动性突然升高,而且疲软情
形似乎不会只持续几天就会悄然而逝,这在一年来还是首次。

  虽然标准普尔500指数年内仍上涨3.1%,但自从9月中旬触及
纪录高位以来已经下跌了5%左右,而且本周五收在5月23日以来最
低水平。

  “我们仍然处于牛市之中,但近期市况有点危险,而且我认为
这波跌势尚未结束,”Raymond James Financial的首席投资策
略师Jeffrey Saut表示。

  标准普尔500与Nasdaq综合股价指数都创出了2012年5月以来
的最大周线跌幅,而道琼工业指数更是跌至去年收盘水准之下。

  标普500指数本周亦出现连续两日波幅超过40个点的情况,为
三年来首见。反映华尔街紧张情绪的CBOE波动率指数VIX周五收报
21.24,为2月初以来的最高水准。

  投资者表示,担心美国联邦储备委员会(美联储/FED)最终结
束刺激举措,以及海外经济成长低迷并可能影响美国企业的业绩。
原油价格下滑也预示需求乏力。在股市已经涨得过头之际,入市重
金押注还会继续上涨的投资者普遍被套。

  这种剧烈震荡,令人回想起2011年下半年的市况。当时美国
债信评级有史以来首次被下调以及债务违约风险,让投资者担惊受
怕了好几个月。目前还不清楚,这次股市动荡是否也会持续那么长
的时间。

  “当前市况令人关注的地方是,几个主题都促使大家采取同样
的行动,这个行动就是降低风险,”Clearpool Group的首席市场
策略师Peter Kenny表示。

  防御类股

  自标准普尔500指数在9月18日创下纪录高位以来,仍在上涨
的只有防御类股:公用事业股与消费必需品类股。本周美国应税债
券基金净流入金额亦创纪录最高,而股票基金则净流出近70亿美
元。

  期权市场成交量急剧上升,显示投资者预计股市波动将会加
剧。据期权分析公司Trade Alert,周五期权市场成交量为2013
年6月以来最高,总计达2,720万口合约成交。

  此外,CBOE波动率指数高于从现在至2015年5月的每月VIX期
货合约,表明投资者担心近期股市起伏不定。

  “只需看一看过去三至六个月的期权成交量与股市交易
量,”在线券商TradingBlock的首席期权策略师Tim Biggam表
示。

  “期权成交量只是不断上升,而股市成交量则开始减退。许多
大型投资者在利用期权预先做准备。”

  对于欧洲和其它海外经济体的担忧上升,令基金经理对财报季
放心不下。未来一两周,一些美国企业将公布财报,包括一些海外
营收比重较大的标普500成份股,如芯片巨头英特尔(31.91,
-1.71, -5.09%)(INTC.O: 行情)。

  Microchip Technology (MCHP.O: 行情)周四发布令人失
望的财测,给芯片业前景带来不祥之兆。PHLX半导体指数周五收
低6.9%,创出2009年1月以来的最大单日百分比跌幅。自从不到一
个月前触及13年高点以来,该指数已下挫了15%。

  但是,如果美股业绩强劲,则可能阻止眼前的跌势。

  “美国企业的财报应该会帮助股市止跌,并让其恢复一些动
能。我们认为市况仍然良好,”Northern Trust Asset
Management的首席投资策略师Jim McDonald表示。该资产管理
公司掌管的资产约为9,240亿美元。
 
13   [deer2005 于 2014-10-12 22:10:30 提到] [FROM: 75.]
China's exports surge in September; Imports also
unexpectedly rose

China's exports surged 15.3 percent in September
from the year-ago period, data showed on Monday,
beating the 11.8 percent gain expected in a Reuters
poll and after rising 9.4 percent in August.

Imports also unexpectedly rose 7 percent, versus
forecasts for a decline of 2.7 percent and
following a fall of 2.4 percent in August.

The country's trade surplus narrowed to $31 billion
from a record high of $49.8 billion in August.
 
14   [deer2005 于 2014-10-12 21:47:27 提到] [FROM: 75.]

大跌后反弹可能性还是比较大的。

要看:1、中国数据好否?2、联储官员延后加息言论起作用否?
 
15   [deer2005 于 2014-10-12 20:28:20 提到] [FROM: 75.]
目前的形势下,TA分析是不管用的。
 
16   [futures 于 2014-10-12 07:37:01 提到] [FROM: 24.]
反弹极为做空机会
 
17   [deer2005 于 2014-10-11 23:45:20 提到] [FROM: 75.]
本人看熊,不做熊。准备旁观了。
 
18   [deer2005 于 2014-10-11 23:41:31 提到] [FROM: 75.]
周一股市反弹可能性很大,为离场好机会。
 
19   [deer2005 于 2014-10-11 23:36:42 提到] [FROM: 75.]
World economies warn of global risks, call for bold
action

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-warns-global-
economy-risk-175450932.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The International Monetary
Fund's member countries on Saturday said bold
action was needed to bolster the global economic
recovery and they urged governments not to squelch
growth by tightening budgets too drastically,
although Germany poured cold water on the idea of a
new global "crisis."

With Japan's economy floundering, the euro zone at
risk of recession and even China's expansion
slowing, the IMF's steering committee said focusing
on growth was the priority.

"A number of countries face the prospect of low or
slowing growth, with unemployment remaining
unacceptably high," the International Monetary and
Financial Committee said on behalf of the Fund's
188 member countries.

The Fund this week cut its 2014 global growth
forecast to 3.3 percent from 3.4 percent, the third
reduction this year as the prospects for a
sustainable recovery from the 2007-2009 global
financial crisis have ebbed, despite hefty
injections of cash by the world's central banks.

The IMF has flagged Europe as the top concern, a
sentiment echoed by many policymakers, economists
and investors gathered in Washington for the Fund's
fall meetings.

European officials sought to dispel the gloom.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said
the drag from fiscal tightening in the euro zone
was set to fade, while German Finance Minister
Wolfgang Schaeuble downplayed the idea that the
region's largest economy was at risk of recession.

"There is no reason to talk about a crisis in the
global economy," Schaeuble said.

The IMF committee called for fiscal policy
flexibility, but efforts to provide more room for
France to meet its European Union deficit target
looked set to founder on Germany's insistence that
the agreement on fiscal rectitude was set in stone
and that the bloc would not be writing any new
checks.

STORM CLOUDS GATHER

The United States has been a relative bright spot
in the otherwise darkening global economic picture,
and investors have rushed into dollars as a result.

Still, while U.S. growth has picked up, soft
inflation and wage growth suggest the slowest-ever
postwar recovery is not delivering a sustained
boost to demand, and concerns are growing that the
global slowdown will undercut the U.S. economy as
well.

Top officials from the U.S. Federal Reserve
highlighted growing risks, with the central bank's
No. 2 saying the global slowdown could delay plans
for a U.S. interest rate hike.

"In determining the pace at which our monetary
accommodation is removed, we will, as always, be
paying close attention to the path of the rest of
the global economy and its significant consequences
for U.S. economic prospects," he said at a
conference of the Institute for International
Finance.

The IMF panel urged nations to carry out
politically tough reforms to labor markets and
social security to free up money to invest in
infrastructure to create jobs and lift growth.

"Our key concern is to look ahead so that we avert
.... the very real risk of a prolonged period of
subpar growth," said Singaporean Finance Minister
Tharman Shanmugaratnam, the panel's chairman.

The committee also called on central banks to be
careful when communicating changes in policy in
order to avoid financial market shocks. While not
naming any central banks, the warning appeared
aimed at the Fed, which is set to end its current
bond-buying program this month. Its next step,
expected in mid-2015, would be to raise rates.

The Fed has debated a change to its commitment to
holding rates near zero for a "considerable time"
at its recent policy meetings, but is stepping
gingerly to avoid roiling financial markets. It
does not want a repeat of the "taper tantrum" it
touched off last year when it signaled its easing
of monetary policy was drawing to a close.
 
20   [deer2005 于 2014-10-11 23:33:36 提到] [FROM: 75.]
Fed officials say global slowdown could push back
U.S. rate hike

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-fischer-
foresees-smooth-u-211120063.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials on
Saturday took stock of a slowdown in the global
economy and said it could delay an increase in U.S.
interest rates if serious enough.

Most notably, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer
said the effort to finally normalize U.S. monetary
policy after years of extraordinary stimulus may be
hampered by the global outlook.

"If foreign growth is weaker than anticipated, the
consequences for the U.S. economy could lead the
Fed to remove accommodation more slowly than
otherwise," he said at an event sponsored by
International Monetary Fund.

Nevertheless, he said betting in financial markets
on the timing of a U.S. rate hike appeared
"roughly" on the mark given the Fed's current
expectations on how the economy's recovery would
unfold.
 
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