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Re: 关于mutual fund
[版面:投资][首篇作者:EmMeadow] , 2015年06月23日22:39:04 ,3972次阅读,42次回复
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EmMeadow
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发信人: EmMeadow (青山绿水), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jun 24 22:10:39 2015, 美东)


我当然承认世界上有很多人比我聪明得多,投资比我强的多。我没法想通的是,那些人
凭什么要尽职替我投资。

象Buffet那样的人,地上掉几百美金估计都不一定有心情拣起来。我花多少钱可能让他
坐在办公室里替我投资?事实上,头脑稍微清醒一点,就可以认识到,这样的情况是不
可能出现的。大部分fund manager并没有多少水平。他们能管理很多资金,靠的是公司
的牌子。比如Goldman Sachs,至少我认识的fund manager我并不觉得他们水平比我高
(或者说,我根本不觉得他们有什么水平可言)。靠着Goldman Sachs的牌子,他们也
能管理很大规模的资金。反正给客户一个懂行的假象就是了。真正会炒股会投资的,谁
有心情坐在办公室里朝九晚五,每年拿几天可怜的假期?能接受这样的生活的人一定能
比我强?对此我打着问号。

不知道这个回答是不是听起来还有道理。


【 在 wltsn (waterfall) 的大作中提到: 】
: “具体最终的expense里面包含了什么?是简单的百分比的管理费,还是连公
: 司大楼清洁工的工资,各员工的度假开销都算进客户的expense里面了?对这个问题的
: 回答,可以让你了解什么Mutual fund可以碰,什么mutual fund不可以碰。”
: 这些费用本来就是会算在expense里的。难不成还要fund manager自掏腰包?又不是慈
: 善。
: index fund之所以比actively managed fund 便宜,除了交易少,也是因为不需要智力
: 。开着机器和程序就可以track index。而买active MF 或者hedge fund 买的就是明星
: 经理的服务。这方面和世上的很多其它事情一样,是一分钱一分货的。做得好的基金收
: two and twenty,也一样有很多人心甘情愿交钱。
: 你既然是追求高收益,追求outperformance的人,应该不难理解这世上有人可以做的非
: ...................



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update
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发信人: update (suffered), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jun 24 23:53:19 2015, 美东)

Interesting idea. No I do not usually check that. First I use vanguard fund
outside 401k. Then I trust there had been loads of people smarter than me
and having more time than me who had double triple checked that. If the
vanguard index fund has outrageously underperformed index, some people will
roar before I had a chance to find out.

But once I checked my 401k fund performance compared to index. A colleague
asked me why our 401k fund return about 2% more than index. That cannot
happen. Some fishy scheme behind?

So see, even though I didn't check, plenty of others would monitor that and
raise questions. He went as far as calling the 401k holding company and
asked how the fund follows index.

I got interested -- not alarmed -- so I took a look. Yeah, fund follows
index well. A few base points higher in one fund, a few points lower in
another. Why? Tracking error I bet. So yes, tracking error can be positive
or negative. As to my colleague's question? He was using index,not total
return. 2% was the dividend he missed.




【 在 EmMeadow (青山绿水) 的大作中提到: 】
: 顺便问一下,这里有几个人买index fund之前会下载历史数据自己统计一下它真实的
: expense ratio的?还是纸上说是多少你就信是多少?
: fund



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EmMeadow
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发信人: EmMeadow (青山绿水), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 25 00:09:59 2015, 美东)


All I can tell from your story is that your colleague is much more
responsible than you are. Verifying the expense ratio is not a big deal by
itself, but it is an attitude. Without this, you won't be able to survive in
the dangerous market.

【 在 update (suffered) 的大作中提到: 】
: Interesting idea. No I do not usually check that. First I use vanguard
fund
: outside 401k. Then I trust there had been loads of people smarter than me
: and having more time than me who had double triple checked that. If the
: vanguard index fund has outrageously underperformed index, some people
will
: roar before I had a chance to find out.
: But once I checked my 401k fund performance compared to index. A colleague
: asked me why our 401k fund return about 2% more than index. That cannot
: happen. Some fishy scheme behind?
: So see, even though I didn't check, plenty of others would monitor that
and
: raise questions. He went as far as calling the 401k holding company and
: ...................



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Lucinda
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发信人: Lucinda (lulu), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 25 00:20:39 2015, 美东)

外行问一下:

三年前在Chase开投资账户,选balanced portfolio, 完全依赖Financial Advisor(同
事推荐的)选基金(错误之一),bond的比例占40%(错误之二:现在知道以我的年纪
这个比例太保守了),其中不少PIMCO的bond funds,都是Shared Class C,ER基本2%左
右(错误之三)。最近恶补Mutual Fund知识,知道自己犯了不少理财错误。现在的问
题是要卖掉这些Bond基金的话要亏损不少,如果九月份如预期升息,那这些基金的
Price还会下降吧。如何明智地解套呢?还是只能等Price回升再卖?

多谢。

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MinaHarker
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发信人: MinaHarker (Ms Harker), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 25 00:21:06 2015, 美东)

您要真是皇帝, 还不得累死。 敲木头。皇上吉祥。

【 在 EmMeadow (青山绿水) 的大作中提到: 】
: All I can tell from your story is that your colleague is much more
: responsible than you are. Verifying the expense ratio is not a big deal by
: itself, but it is an attitude. Without this, you won't be able to survive
in
:  the dangerous market.
: fund
: will
: and



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mitbbsmoney
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发信人: mitbbsmoney (mitbbsmoney), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 25 01:18:25 2015, 美东)

拿不准 就分步买卖。

【 在 Lucinda (lulu) 的大作中提到: 】
: 外行问一下:
: 三年前在Chase开投资账户,选balanced portfolio, 完全依赖Financial Advisor(同
: 事推荐的)选基金(错误之一),bond的比例占40%(错误之二:现在知道以我的年纪
: 这个比例太保守了),其中不少PIMCO的bond funds,都是Shared Class C,ER基本2%左
: 右(错误之三)。最近恶补Mutual Fund知识,知道自己犯了不少理财错误。现在的问
: 题是要卖掉这些Bond基金的话要亏损不少,如果九月份如预期升息,那这些基金的
: Price还会下降吧。如何明智地解套呢?还是只能等Price回升再卖?
: 多谢。



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wltsn
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发信人: wltsn (waterfall), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 25 04:03:44 2015, 美东)

“我没法想通的是,那些人凭什么要尽职替我投资。”

Seriously?

我只能说每个人的经历、境界和追求都是不太一样的,以己度人的时候要谨慎。

像Buffett那样的人,为什么要让普通人也能买他的股票,分到一杯羹?他那么成功了
,年纪也那么大了,为什么还要跑办公室?也是头脑不清醒?要不您去点醒一下他老人
家?

我之前说了,是明星经理,不是大部分经理。虽然说不上很多,不过每个年代都有。多
到足够你park你的钱了。人家追求的不完全是钱。 像Peter Lynch, Paul Tudor Johns
, Carl Icahn 这样的估计都难入大牛您的法眼,想必都是每天可怜兮兮去办公室混混
日子,骗骗客户,吃吃hidden fee 的?

你也炒股,难道不觉得除了赚到的那点钱之外还有附加的乐趣吗?想象一下,不单单是
你自己那点钱,而是可以管理几亿资金,自己的成功操作可以改变成千上万的人的生活
,留下一段传奇。有人就喜欢这个,这和很多人希望事业上有一番作为有什么本质区别
吗?就真的很难理解有投资成功的人愿意有偿地尽职帮别人投资?


【 在 EmMeadow (青山绿水) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我当然承认世界上有很多人比我聪明得多,投资比我强的多。我没法想通的是,那些人
: 凭什么要尽职替我投资。
: 象Buffet那样的人,地上掉几百美金估计都不一定有心情拣起来。我花多少钱可能让他
: 坐在办公室里替我投资?事实上,头脑稍微清醒一点,就可以认识到,这样的情况是不
: 可能出现的。大部分fund manager并没有多少水平。他们能管理很多资金,靠的是公司
: 的牌子。比如Goldman Sachs,至少我认识的fund manager我并不觉得他们水平比我高
: (或者说,我根本不觉得他们有什么水平可言)。靠着Goldman Sachs的牌子,他们也
: 能管理很大规模的资金。反正给客户一个懂行的假象就是了。真正会炒股会投资的,谁
: 有心情坐在办公室里朝九晚五,每年拿几天可怜的假期?能接受这样的生活的人一定能
: 比我强?对此我打着问号。
: ...................



--
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parsley
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发信人: parsley (每天弱弱多一些), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 25 07:54:38 2015, 美东)

你被皇上误导了。 mutual fund有两种, 一种是benchmarked to index, 另外一种是
total return fund. 其中index benchmarked fund占绝大多数, 因为market is
driven by institutional investor (pension and retirement) and they like
benchmark driven fund? why? because they typically do asset allocation
themselves but rely on mutual fund manager to provide them with "proper"
exposures. Large/small cap, or domestic/international equities are all
different kinds of exposures. By properly exposed to the market, you get the
market return of that segment (e.g. Large or small cap). by using a fund
manager, they try to get excess returns over the market (benchmark). and a
lot of times, they don't want the fund manager to go too far away from the
benchmark (high tracking error) since they are afraod  not getting the right
exposure. These methodologies are far more sophisticated than what the guy
depicted as a conspiracy.

The mutual fund managers charge a fix percentage fee but as thie AUM (asset
under management) grows, their comp goes up. and there are two ways for aum
to go up: new money and growth of existing monry - fund return or
performance. So how do they have the incentive to screw your return, or
their comp?

stop listen to the guy. go read some investment book and you'll be far more
better.


【 在 update (suffered) 的大作中提到: 】
: Interesting idea. No I do not usually check that. First I use vanguard
fund
: outside 401k. Then I trust there had been loads of people smarter than me
: and having more time than me who had double triple checked that. If the
: vanguard index fund has outrageously underperformed index, some people
will
: roar before I had a chance to find out.
: But once I checked my 401k fund performance compared to index. A colleague
: asked me why our 401k fund return about 2% more than index. That cannot
: happen. Some fishy scheme behind?
: So see, even though I didn't check, plenty of others would monitor that
and
: raise questions. He went as far as calling the 401k holding company and
: ...................

--
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EmMeadow
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发信人: EmMeadow (青山绿水), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 25 09:10:04 2015, 美东)


我的观点不过是劝大家要多做思考推理,多做验证,对自己负责。至于你说的,有理想
有追求的fund manager当然存在,但是打酱油忽悠人的只怕更多。你如果对此有研究,
可否向大家介绍一下辨识方法?

【 在 wltsn (waterfall) 的大作中提到: 】
: “我没法想通的是,那些人凭什么要尽职替我投资。”
: Seriously?
: 我只能说每个人的经历、境界和追求都是不太一样的,以己度人的时候要谨慎。
: 像Buffett那样的人,为什么要让普通人也能买他的股票,分到一杯羹?他那么成功了
: ,年纪也那么大了,为什么还要跑办公室?也是头脑不清醒?要不您去点醒一下他老人
: 家?
: 我之前说了,是明星经理,不是大部分经理。虽然说不上很多,不过每个年代都有。多
: 到足够你park你的钱了。人家追求的不完全是钱。 像Peter Lynch, Paul Tudor
Johns
: , Carl Icahn 这样的估计都难入大牛您的法眼,想必都是每天可怜兮兮去办公室混混
: 日子,骗骗客户,吃吃hidden fee 的?
: ...................



--
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update
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发信人: update (suffered), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 25 09:35:08 2015, 美东)

I'll try this one.

Financial advisor may not be a good idea, 2% er definitely a bad idea, but
40% bond may not be. Bond is there to control risk. Do you really know your
risk tolerance? Many, or actually most, overestimate their appetite for risk
, especially in good market times, like now.

So I would say get out of those funds for the expense reason but not for
bond reason. And who knows if the fed will raise interest rate or not. Tune
out the noise. If interest tate increases 1%, which is unlikely,  then an
intermediate bond fund will lose 5-6%, temporary. That's not too big a deal.
And then yield will go up and you won't lose much.
【 在 Lucinda (lulu) 的大作中提到: 】
: 外行问一下:
: 三年前在Chase开投资账户,选balanced portfolio, 完全依赖Financial Advisor(同
: 事推荐的)选基金(错误之一),bond的比例占40%(错误之二:现在知道以我的年纪
: 这个比例太保守了),其中不少PIMCO的bond funds,都是Shared Class C,ER基本2%左
: 右(错误之三)。最近恶补Mutual Fund知识,知道自己犯了不少理财错误。现在的问
: 题是要卖掉这些Bond基金的话要亏损不少,如果九月份如预期升息,那这些基金的
: Price还会下降吧。如何明智地解套呢?还是只能等Price回升再卖?
: 多谢。



--
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update
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发信人: update (suffered), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 25 09:38:40 2015, 美东)

Thanks parsley.  I think we are on the same boat.

【 在 parsley (每天弱弱多一些) 的大作中提到: 】
: 你被皇上误导了。 mutual fund有两种, 一种是benchmarked to index, 另外一种是
: total return fund. 其中index benchmarked fund占绝大多数, 因为market is
: driven by institutional investor (pension and retirement) and they like
: benchmark driven fund? why? because they typically do asset allocation
: themselves but rely on mutual fund manager to provide them with "proper"
: exposures. Large/small cap, or domestic/international equities are all
: different kinds of exposures. By properly exposed to the market, you get
the
:  market return of that segment (e.g. Large or small cap). by using a fund
: manager, they try to get excess returns over the market (benchmark). and a
: lot of times, they don't want the fund manager to go too far away from the
: ...................



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update
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发信人: update (suffered), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 25 09:55:51 2015, 美东)

On attitude and danger of market:

Attitude is important.  I study and learn. I've met some smart, and I think
really smart, people, who gave the advice of using index fund. They tried to
beat market, they won, they eventually lost. The more I read. The more I am
convinced I am among the majority group that will not beat the market.  You
can call me coward, I call that knowing oneself.

I pay due diligence on things I do not understand and want to understand.
Somebody recommends index annuity with all sorts of rosy pictures. I would
read the fine print to find out what's hidden. All that only leads to the
agreement with already established concensus that complicated financial
product is seldom a good product for consumers. 

I understand how index fund works.  Concept is simple. I buy in the
principle, then I don't fuss about it anymore.

Market is dangerous?  I'm not sure. I really think human greed is dangerous.
  I think if I really know my risk tolerance,  have an appropriate
allocation commensurate with my risk level, and I can stay the course,  then
I should be fine. I have doubt about myself, not the market.


【 在 MinaHarker (Ms Harker) 的大作中提到: 】
: 您要真是皇帝, 还不得累死。 敲木头。皇上吉祥。
: in



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moonccg
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发信人: moonccg (moon), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jun 26 15:48:36 2015, 美东)

请教index fund,光s&p 500就有好多种。比如spx,spy,vfinx, etc. 应该买哪个好还
是都一样哪个都无所谓?
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mitbbsmoney
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发信人: mitbbsmoney (mitbbsmoney), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jun 26 16:13:21 2015, 美东)

the one with lower expense ratio
【 在 moonccg (moon) 的大作中提到: 】
: 请教index fund,光s&p 500就有好多种。比如spx,spy,vfinx, etc. 应该买哪个好还
: 是都一样哪个都无所谓?



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EmMeadow
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发信人: EmMeadow (青山绿水), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jun 26 18:19:00 2015, 美东)


Let me ask you this.

If you can control yourself to only use index fund, that means you know
yourself and can control your "greed". Then, why you think you will not be
able to control your greed if you enter the ground of active trading and
using leveraged tools like options and futures?

I know you choose not to touch these things. But is it really hard to
believe that some people can still control their greed even if they do
active trading and use leveraged tools?

Many people like to drink alcohol, but not everyone will lose control to
become alcoholic. Why every time you talk about people doing active trading,
you want to believe that they will not be able to control themselves
eventually?



【 在 update (suffered) 的大作中提到: 】
: On attitude and danger of market:
: Attitude is important.  I study and learn. I've met some smart, and I
think
: really smart, people, who gave the advice of using index fund. They tried
to
:  beat market, they won, they eventually lost. The more I read. The more I
am
:  convinced I am among the majority group that will not beat the market. 
You
:  can call me coward, I call that knowing oneself.
: I pay due diligence on things I do not understand and want to understand.
: Somebody recommends index annuity with all sorts of rosy pictures. I would
: read the fine print to find out what's hidden. All that only leads to the
: agreement with already established concensus that complicated financial
: ...................



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wltsn
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发信人: wltsn (waterfall), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jun 26 22:30:54 2015, 美东)

Controlling emotions is a difficult part. However, merely able to do that is
just not good enough. Machines & algorithms can certainly avoid emotional
decision. Why haven't all the good programmers become super rich by
automatic trading? You need to have an *edge* to be successful in the market.

【 在 EmMeadow (青山绿水) 的大作中提到: 】
: Let me ask you this.
: If you can control yourself to only use index fund, that means you know
: yourself and can control your "greed". Then, why you think you will not be
: able to control your greed if you enter the ground of active trading and
: using leveraged tools like options and futures?
: I know you choose not to touch these things. But is it really hard to
: believe that some people can still control their greed even if they do
: active trading and use leveraged tools?
: Many people like to drink alcohol, but not everyone will lose control to
: become alcoholic. Why every time you talk about people doing active
trading,
: ...................



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EmMeadow
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发信人: EmMeadow (青山绿水), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jun 26 23:08:16 2015, 美东)


Can you give an example to illustrate "edge"?

【 在 wltsn (waterfall) 的大作中提到: 】
: Controlling emotions is a difficult part. However, merely able to do that
is
:  just not good enough. Machines & algorithms can certainly avoid emotional
: decision. Why haven't all the good programmers become super rich by
: automatic trading? You need to have an *edge* to be successful in the
market.
: trading,



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update
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发信人: update (suffered), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jun 27 01:15:24 2015, 美东)

Different fund companies provide different fund but if they track the same
index, they should be almost identical. Think about which company you are
likely to stay long term then use that one.


【 在 moonccg (moon) 的大作中提到: 】
: 请教index fund,光s&p 500就有好多种。比如spx,spy,vfinx, etc. 应该买哪个好还
: 是都一样哪个都无所谓?



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update
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发信人: update (suffered), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jun 27 01:19:10 2015, 美东)

Re controlling emotion is difficult.




【 在 wltsn (waterfall) 的大作中提到: 】
: Controlling emotions is a difficult part. However, merely able to do that
is
:  just not good enough. Machines & algorithms can certainly avoid emotional
: decision. Why haven't all the good programmers become super rich by
: automatic trading? You need to have an *edge* to be successful in the
market.
: trading,



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update
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发信人: update (suffered), 信区: Investment
标  题: Re: 关于mutual fund
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jun 27 01:44:56 2015, 美东)

I feel you are changing my definition of scope of greed.

No, I am not sure I can control my greed very well. Greed is part of human
nature, a weakness, at the same time a strength. Human race makes to its
current form partially for being greedy. Desire to outperform, to gain more.

I am merely aware of this tendency, but not too sure I will control it well.

Going for index, and try to perform "benign negligence" is one way for me to
deal with it. If I follow too closely on all the market news, I am afraid I
will start to tweak my asset allocation.

In stock market, greed may make somebody rich, and it may bankrupt some
others. I want the upside but dread the downside more, and I choose to keep
away from it.

As to others, I didn't really think about others when I wrote about "greed"
-- it was mainly a reflection on myself -- but now thinking about it, yeah,
I don't have much confidence in ordinary people's greed control either. But
I do not mean a specific person. And I do not blame them either. Who am I to
criticize people. People get fun out of playing the market too. As you said
, if someone knows what he is doing and can take all the consequence, that
should be all fine. Just that I think many market timers don't really know.


【 在 EmMeadow (青山绿水) 的大作中提到: 】
: Let me ask you this.
: If you can control yourself to only use index fund, that means you know
: yourself and can control your "greed". Then, why you think you will not be
: able to control your greed if you enter the ground of active trading and
: using leveraged tools like options and futures?
: I know you choose not to touch these things. But is it really hard to
: believe that some people can still control their greed even if they do
: active trading and use leveraged tools?
: Many people like to drink alcohol, but not everyone will lose control to
: become alcoholic. Why every time you talk about people doing active
trading,
: ...................



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