发信人: ubcumn (Minnehaha), 信区: Military
标  题: 保罗.克鲁格曼-中国的新年
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan  8 15:33:45 2010, 美东)

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/01/opinion/01krugman.html

----------- 翻译 from SMTH ----------

2009年12月31日

传统上，砖家们在这个时候对下一年做出预测。我的预测是关于国际经济的：我预测
2010年将是中国年。不过并不是繁荣娼盛的一年。

实际上，中国最大的问题与气候变化有关。但是，今天我着重谈谈汇率问题。

中国已经成了一个主要的金融和贸易强权。但这家伙的行为方式与别的大经济体不同。
中国玩儿的是重商主义策略，人为地保持贸易入超。在世界处于衰退的今天，他妈的这
种策略就是要整死我们。

情况是这样的：与美元、欧元或日元不同，这些货币的汇率是自由浮动地，中国的汇率
被官方紧盯在6.8元兑一美元左右。在这种汇率下，中国制造与其竞争对手相比有很大
的成本优势，导致了巨额的贸易顺差。

在通常情况下，由于那些顺差流入的美元将推高中国的汇率，除非以私人投资的方式把
这些美元花出去。可是私人投资却是试图进入中国，而不是从中国流出。但是中国政府
严格限制资金流入，买入美元并把它们存在国外，积攒了2万多亿美刀的外汇储备。

这种策略对于中国的出口导向的国营工业复合体是有好处的，但对于中国的消费者却是
不好的。那么，对于我们这些老外有什么影响呢？

过去，中国积累的外汇储备，其中很多都投入了美国的债券，据说有助于我们维持较低
的利率，当然这是有争论的——可是我们却用低利率搞大了房地产泡沫，他妈的这是中
国在害我们。现在世界上充斥着廉价的资金，到处在寻找出口。短期利率接近于零，长
期利率稍微高点儿，因为投资者预期零利率政策将在某一天结束。现在我们不需要中国
的钱了，中国买不买债券他妈的无所谓了。

与此同时，中国的贸易盈余吸干了衰退的世界经济中最最重要的需求。我掰着脚趾算了
算，中国的重商主义将在未来几年内使美国减少140万个工作岗位，这他妈的还让不让
人活了。

中国人却拒绝承认这个问题。最近，影帝宝宝拒绝承认洋人的抱怨：“一方面，你们要
求重估人民币，另一方面，你们却采用各种贸易保护主义措施。”丫说对了，我们采取
（温和的）贸易保护主义措施，就是因为中国拒绝让汇率上升。我们采取的措施就是合
理、就是合理、就是合理。

否则让我们咋办呢？我常常听说有两个原因使我们不应该指责中国。两个都是放屁。

第一个，有人说我们不应该指责中国，因为他们可以把美元全部抛出，掀翻桌子大伙都
吃不成了。这是放屁，借给它个胆儿，它也不敢这么做，中国将遭受巨额的损失。更重
要的是，中国之所以采取这种损人不利己的重商主义，恰恰是因为中国缺少金融杠杆，
没办法掀翻桌子。

再说了，世界上到处都是便宜钱。所以认为中国开始出售美元，将显著抬高美国利率的
想法是简直是脑残。这样也许会使美元兑其它货币贬值——可是他娘的这是好事，不是
坏事，这对美国的竞争力和就业有好处。所以如果中国抛售美元，我们感谢它还来不及
呢。


第二，有人说保护主义在任何情况下都是坏事儿。如果相信这一点，那你一定是投错师
门了，这种理论是用来忽悠别人的，自己怎么能信呢？当失业率高企，政府无法恢复就
业时，通常的规则都要失效。

让我从保罗萨缪尔森晚年的论文中引用一段，那老鬼可以算是现代经济学的奠基人之一
：“当就业不充分时.....所有那些狗日的重商主义论点”——就是说，有些国家通过
补贴出口十分有效地偷走别国的就业机会——“都是有效的。”他接着说，长期错位的
汇率将成为“自由贸易信徒们真正的问题”。对这些问题的最佳回答就是让汇率回到正
确的位置。可是中国就是他妈的不愿意这么做。

底线是，中国的重商主义是个越来越麻烦的问题，这种重商主义的受害者如果采去贸易
对抗措施将不会有什么损失。因此，我敦促中国政府不要顽抗到底。否则，我们将会采
取更加疯狂的保护主义措施，比中国现在抱怨的那些措施更疯狂。


ahead. Mine concerns international economics: I predict that 2010 will be
the year of China. And not in a good way. I want to focus on currency policy.


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发信人: aggressive (微尘), 信区: Military
标  题: Re: 保罗.克鲁格曼-中国的新年
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan  8 17:37:52 2010, 美东)

这个老印的comments很有种!

41.
RB
India
January 1st, 2010
9:02 am
Sorry Mr. Krugman, but you seem to have forgotten basic economics.

If the Chinese maintain a cheap exchange rate, it only hurts Chinese
consumers. For the US in particular, a weaker Chinese exchange rate will
lead to higher prices and a diversion of imports top from other Asian or
Latin American countries - not any form of job creation. The problem the US
faces is that too many Americans are too uneducated or incompetent to
sustain the differential between US wages and those of people from the rest
of the world (esp during cyclical downturns when service jobs in the US turn
down). I can't imagine how people like you believe that high school grads
in the US deserve higher wages than graduates of the top engineering or
business schools in China or India. The US needs to either rebuild its
educational edge over the world or face a relative decline in living
standards. Attempting to preserve differentials through tariffs would slow
the process of relative decline (by slowing China's growth rather than
boosting the US's growth) - but would hurt far more people than it will help
- and could lead to unintended consequences such as wars.

And trying to blame Chinese (who emit 15% of American emissions per capita,
that too substantially for exports to the US) for global warming is the
height of the ridiculous - white people have to get used to the fact that
people from the rest of the world too have a right to its resources.

Perhaps its time for you to stop pretending that your column represents the
work of a leading economist - and admit that it represents the views of a
highly nativist American who believes that mediocre people deserve an
exceptional standard of living merely because they are born in or immigrate
to America.
Recommend  Recommended by 226 Readers
【 在 aggressive (微尘) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这脑洗的！
:
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※ 来源:·WWW 未名空间站 海外: mitbbs.com 中国: mitbbs.cn·[FROM: 152.1.]

发信人: aggressive (微尘), 信区: Military
标  题: Re: 保罗.克鲁格曼-中国的新年
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan  8 17:45:27 2010, 美东)

2.
W in the Middle
New York State
January 1st, 2010
8:52 am
Paul, you sound like a British nobleist, rather than an American Nobelist.

Isn't this how they groused about us across the pond, a century or so ago?

But - rather than grousing - why not some grudging respect.

The Chinese, by pegging - until they no longer see fit - have stealthily
created a Sino-American hybrid currency. The "Eartho", perhaps?

Denominated by Americans (who also get to pick the pictures on the currency)
- and controlled by the Chinese. Seems like a fair trade.

And - overdone plaudits to Samuelson notwithstanding - you appear to
contradict yourself, along with many of your cohorts.

To wit, you make the compelling case that sovereign debt is an oxymoron.

To wit, it appears that someone who is truly sovereign (like China or
Microsoft), doesn't have to borrow to grow into dominance.

One person's mercantilism is another person's comparative advantage -
perhaps gone non-linear, like one of those climate-change models.

Best Wishes for 2010.
Recommend  Recommended by 111 Readers
3.
David
SF
January 1st, 2010
8:52 am
“…nations who subsidize their exports effectively steal jobs from other
countries — “turn out to be valid.”

Dr. Krugman, this is exactly what the developing countries have been
screaming about our, and Europe’s, agricultural subsidies: We have been
stealing agricultural jobs from the third world countries for eons
destroying their agricultural base!

As for import restrictions, for example, just recall that tariffs and
restrictions on sugar have been in place since long before we were even
talking to “Red China”. As a result we have the highest sugar prices in
the world. Trade barriers by us are nothing new and have little to do with
China. Should I mention how Harley-Davidson was saved from Japanese
competition?

It is very disappointing that whenever you rail against the Chinese trade
surplus with the USA, you fail to mention that about 60% of this surplus
goes to American companies operating out of China. They inflate the import (
transfer) prices to show smaller profit here in order to pay fewer taxes,
and keep profits abroad paying no taxes at all.

China does not force us to buy from them. Greedy and socially irresponsible
American corporations, engaged in labor arbitrage and tax evasion, in
collusion with the “for sale” congress and the White House, are the main
problem. Let us clean up our glass house first.
Recommend  Recommended by 924 Readers

【 在 ubcumn (Minnehaha) 的大作中提到: 】
: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/01/opinion/01krugman.html
: ----------- 翻译 from SMTH ----------
: 2009年12月31日
: 传统上，砖家们在这个时候对下一年做出预测。我的预测是关于国际经济的：我预测
: 2010年将是中国年。不过并不是繁荣娼盛的一年。
: 实际上，中国最大的问题与气候变化有关。但是，今天我着重谈谈汇率问题。
: 中国已经成了一个主要的金融和贸易强权。但这家伙的行为方式与别的大经济体不同。
: 中国玩儿的是重商主义策略，人为地保持贸易入超。在世界处于衰退的今天，他妈的这
: 种策略就是要整死我们。
: 情况是这样的：与美元、欧元或日元不同，这些货币的汇率是自由浮动地，中国的汇率
: ...................



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※ 来源:·WWW 未名空间站 海外: mitbbs.com 中国: mitbbs.cn·[FROM: 152.1.]